Entries by Tim Price

Hire Harry Markopolos

If you want to be soundly depressed about human nature, read No One Would Listen by Harry Markopolos. Remember Bernie Madoff’s $64 billion Ponzi scheme ? Grupo Santander probably does. As, presumably, do Fortis Bank, HSBC, UBP, Natixis, RBS, BNP Paribas, BBVA, Nomura, Tremont Capital, Axa, Dexia and Unicredit – just some of the entities […]

Is it a game ? Or is it real ?

“Joshua/WOPR: Shall we play a game ? David: Oh! Jennifer: I think it missed him. David: Yeah. Weird isn’t it? Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War ? Joshua/WOPR: Wouldn’t you prefer a good game of chess ? David: Later. Let’s play Global Thermonuclear War. Joshua/WOPR: Fine.” From WarGames (1983), written by Lawrence Lasker and […]

Home country bias

“A group of Leave supporters standing in the shadow of Westminster Abbey insisted that God was opposed to the EU. A man on a stepladder preached that the Bible – specifically Deuteronomy Chapter 28 verses 1 to 14 – expressed the almighty’s distaste for governance units larger than the nation state.” Robert Wright, ‘Parliamentary divisions […]

Would you have sold ?

Here is a thought experiment. It is 1971. You hear great things about the management of a particular company, so you invest $10,000 in its shares. You also keep an eye on the broader market. Here is how you fare..

What lies beneath

Surveying the wreckage of markets in 2018, it is human and therefore tempting to put the more optimistic (contrarian ?) case for the year ahead. But our job for the medium term is to protect and grow our investors’ capital, not to be optimistic simply for optimism’s sake. 2018 was an annus horribilis not just […]

The hike before Christmas

‘Twas the hike before Christmas, and all over the shop Short end traders were waiting for prices to drop. Bloomberg and Reuters, the FT all there To capture the moment – if Powell would dare.

Identity crisis

“A large part of the political class, and seemingly a sizeable proportion of the country’s educated elite, have distanced themselves from the majority of the country. Never in modern times has there been such an overt and even contemptuous attempt to deny the legitimacy of a popular vote. Edmund Burke in the 1790s gave credit […]

Under the influence

It started with Cluetrain in early 1999. Roughly five hundred years after Martin Luther allegedly nailed his ninety-five theses to the door of the church at Wittenberg, a new polemic was posted online, at www.cluetrain.com. This correspondent stumbled upon a reference to it within a research note from Merrill Lynch’s (now discredited) internet analyst, Henry […]