A Christmas miscellany

The commentary is now setting off on its winter break, to return in 2023.

A Merry Christmas and a happy, peaceful and prosperous New Year to all !

FTX is down the Swanee
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
‘Tis the reason to be sorry
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
Donald Trump is back on Twitter
Fa-la-la, la-la-la, la-la-la
Most of crypto’s down the s***ter
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la.

See that bloody fool before us
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
Bankster-Fraud is now notorious
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
Maybe we should try Etherium
Fa-la-la, la-la-la, la-la-la
Fiat s***e leads to delirium
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la.

Fast away the old year passes
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
Buying sterling ? You need glasses.
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la
Don’t buy that Gilt or US Treasury
Fa-la-la, la-la-la, la-la-la
Gold and silver will now pleasure me [You’re fired. – Ed.]
Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la.

‘Twas the hike before Christmas, and all over the shop

Short end traders were waiting for prices to drop.

Bloomberg and Reuters, the FT all there

To capture the moment – if Powell would dare.

Stockbrokers slept fitfully, dreaming of when

Fed policy meant lower rates (thank you, Ben !)

The hedgies, meanwhile, partied on in their yachts,

With barely a thought of ascending Fed dots.

Commodities managers searched in despair

For solace, in cupboards, but cupboards were bare.

BRIC managers looked at each other in shock,

With a new acronym for EM markets – COCK.

The dollar was rallying, higher and higher –

For frontier debt markets, a funeral pyre.

There were sellers of iron ore, zinc, copper and gold;

What was mined or extracted got ruthlessly sold.

In mid-winter Britain young Rishi did grin

At a leadership vote he did – technically – win;

While all of the country wanted him out

And our only connection with Brussels: a sprout.

And as for old bitcoin, well, simply don’t ask –

Making money from crypto’s a now thankless task.

Whether Litecoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin or Bit,

The returns from alt currencies have been utterly poor.

And CNBC then went live with its anchors

Though all in the market considered them disappointing,

The cameras all turned to report from J-Po,

The Fed chief who lived like a treacherous ho’.

“Information received since we met in October..”

But by now there was nobody left who was sober;

So when he announced just a quarter-point hike,

Since nobody heard him, all markets did spike.

The Nasdaq went higher, the S&P too;

The bond market loved it, and Treasuries flew.

The Far East went mental and over in China

The rally in mid-caps could not have been finer.

At which point a figure in red fled the room,

Concerned that he’d caused an untenable boom.

The Donald Trump Rally was with us all right –

“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!”

………….

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Tim Price is co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio and author of ‘Investing through the Looking Glass: a rational guide to irrational financial markets’. You can access a full archive of these weekly investment commentaries here. You can listen to our regular ‘State of the Markets’ podcasts, with Paul Rodriguez of ThinkTrading.com, here. Email us: info@pricevaluepartners.com

Price Value Partners manage investment portfolios for private clients. We also manage the VT Price Value Portfolio, an unconstrained global fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks and specialist managed funds.