Entries by Tim Price

The only thing we have to fear..

“Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well […]

On not adding, but taking away

“Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.” – Charlie Munger.   According to the French author and pilot Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, a designer knows he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is […]

PVP Factsheet July 2015

July was dominated by two ‘big picture’ macro events: the ongoing negotiations for a bail-out of Greece, and the authorities’ attempts to avert a collapse in the Chinese equity markets, seemingly involving everything including the kitchen sink. Since the fund has no direct exposure to either Greece or China, the volatility experienced by other equity […]

Major drag, huh?

“We’re not gonna make it, are we ? People, I mean.” “It is in your nature to destroy yourselves.” “Yeah. Major drag, huh ?” –       From James Cameron’s ‘Terminator 2: Judgment Day’. Here is a thought experiment. It is January 2000. The last wild Pyrenean ibex has been found dead, squashed by a tree. America […]

Goodbye to all that

“Funny how bonds were labelled “certificates of confiscation” back in the early 1980’s when yields were 14%. What should we call them now ?” – Bill Gross. The American bond fund manager Bill Gross titles his latest commentary ‘A Sense of an Ending’. Bond markets seem to have taken on an elegiac quality of late. […]

Unsafe at any price

“Everyone is bullish. Contrarians know that must be bearish. However, everyone has been bullish for a while, yet the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 2117 on April 24. That’s because everyone has finally figured out that fighting the Fed in particular and central banks in general is dumb. So we are all […]

On billionaire altruist lunatics

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley. There was once a time, perhaps, when unprecedented things happened only occasionally. In today’s financial markets, unprecedented things are commonplace. The Queen in Lewis Carroll’s ‘[Alice] Through the Looking-Glass’ would sometimes believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast. She is […]