Entries by Tim Price

Is Mark Carney the biggest Cnut in the world ?

“In many respects, Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability. Brexit can lead to a new form of international cooperation and cross-border commerce built on a better balance of […]

Outrageous fortune

“Isn’t it funny when you walk into an investment firm and you see all of the financial advisers watching CNBC ? That gives me the same feeling of confidence I would have if I walked into the Mayo clinic or Sloan Kettering and all the medical staff were watching General Hospital.” A senior portfolio manager.

Hire Harry Markopolos

If you want to be soundly depressed about human nature, read No One Would Listen by Harry Markopolos. Remember Bernie Madoff’s $64 billion Ponzi scheme ? Grupo Santander probably does. As, presumably, do Fortis Bank, HSBC, UBP, Natixis, RBS, BNP Paribas, BBVA, Nomura, Tremont Capital, Axa, Dexia and Unicredit – just some of the entities […]

Is it a game ? Or is it real ?

“Joshua/WOPR: Shall we play a game ? David: Oh! Jennifer: I think it missed him. David: Yeah. Weird isn’t it? Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War ? Joshua/WOPR: Wouldn’t you prefer a good game of chess ? David: Later. Let’s play Global Thermonuclear War. Joshua/WOPR: Fine.” From WarGames (1983), written by Lawrence Lasker and […]

Home country bias

“A group of Leave supporters standing in the shadow of Westminster Abbey insisted that God was opposed to the EU. A man on a stepladder preached that the Bible – specifically Deuteronomy Chapter 28 verses 1 to 14 – expressed the almighty’s distaste for governance units larger than the nation state.” Robert Wright, ‘Parliamentary divisions […]

Would you have sold ?

Here is a thought experiment. It is 1971. You hear great things about the management of a particular company, so you invest $10,000 in its shares. You also keep an eye on the broader market. Here is how you fare..

What lies beneath

Surveying the wreckage of markets in 2018, it is human and therefore tempting to put the more optimistic (contrarian ?) case for the year ahead. But our job for the medium term is to protect and grow our investors’ capital, not to be optimistic simply for optimism’s sake. 2018 was an annus horribilis not just […]

The hike before Christmas

‘Twas the hike before Christmas, and all over the shop Short end traders were waiting for prices to drop. Bloomberg and Reuters, the FT all there To capture the moment – if Powell would dare.